China’s military exercises around Taiwan have evolved from symbolic shows of force into complex, large-scale war games that increasingly resemble real combat scenarios. Over the years, these drills have become one of the most important indicators of rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait and China’s long-term strategic ambitions.
Early Signals: Testing the Waters
China’s earliest war games near Taiwan in the 1990s were largely symbolic. Missile tests and naval maneuvers during the 1995–96 Taiwan Strait Crisis were intended to intimidate voters ahead of Taiwan’s first democratic presidential election.
While limited in scale, these exercises marked the beginning of Beijing’s use of military pressure as a political tool against Taipei.
Modernization and Expansion in the 2000s
As China rapidly modernized its military in the early 2000s, exercises became more sophisticated. Joint drills involving the navy, air force, and missile units focused on blockades, amphibious landings, and air superiority.
These war games were designed not only to signal resolve toward Taiwan but also to prepare the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for coordinated operations across multiple domains.
A Shift After 2016
China’s drills intensified significantly after 2016, following the election of Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, whom Beijing views as favoring independence. PLA aircraft began crossing the Taiwan Strait’s median line more frequently, breaking long-standing norms.
Naval patrols, bomber flights, and missile deployments increasingly surrounded the island, sending a clear message that Beijing was willing to raise the pressure.
Post-2020: Near-Blockade Scenarios
In recent years, China’s war games have taken on a new level of realism. Large-scale exercises now simulate:
- Encirclement of Taiwan
- Blockades of key ports and sea lanes
- Missile strikes on strategic targets
- Joint operations involving cyber and electronic warfare
These drills often take place after high-profile political events, such as U.S. arms sales to Taiwan or visits by Western officials.
Strategic Messaging to the World
China’s war games are not aimed at Taiwan alone. They also serve as warnings to the United States and its allies, signaling Beijing’s readiness to challenge foreign military involvement in the region.
By conducting exercises that resemble actual invasion preparations, China seeks to deter outside intervention while reinforcing its claim over Taiwan.
What History Tells Us
Looking at the historical trajectory, China’s war games around Taiwan show a clear pattern: each phase brings greater scale, realism, and risk. While Beijing insists these exercises are defensive, their increasing intensity has raised fears of miscalculation or accidental escalation.
For Taiwan, its neighbors, and the wider international community, these drills underscore how fragile peace in the Taiwan Strait has become.
